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Jan Karman
Middelburg (Neth)

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Jan Karman
Last update: June 2024

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Aging and Longevity (from NIDI - Demos)

Most children born today in developed countries might live on to celebrate their 90th or even their 100th birthday. At the same time, the number of babies that are born is well below the 'replacement level' of 2.1 children per woman.
As a result, societies are ageing rapidly. In this context, we study how long people live and what factors affect their longevity.
We also investigate how ageing and longevity influence our society, our economy, the labour market, and public policies.
We use a 'life in context' research lens, to investigate how early life experiences impact later life outcomes. See more


Otium cum dignitate

"Reshuffling chaos"

Graduation of Mortality
See also: My article in Vector

Mortality tables are usually graduated for either practical or scientific purposes. The formulae, in which the mortality is expressed as a function of x (= age) are often of the type (Makeham's law):
   mx = A + B.cx (force of mortality)
with A, B and c as parameters. Finding the values of those parameters from the crude material is the hard part.
King-Hardy's method is a suitable way to transform this power function into a linear equation system; it is solved here by way of a least square K-runtime function.
See also E.Zwinggi - Versicherungsmathematik
When invoked, one will find four controls in the bottom part. The first two controls act like a spinbox, the two right most controls simulate the Windows-locator. The challenge is to find as large as possible ranges for making the "law" valid.
Later, famous methods came from Thorvald N. Thiele, published posthumously in 1910, and more recent approaches and remarks can be found at W.J. Willemse.

Recommended for Africa:
G.M.K. Kpedekpo - Essentials of Demographic Analysis for Africa

Jan Karman LinkedIn
Middelburg (Neth), November 2006

 Recent Compositions
Fugues Genevan Psalter
 My harpsichord

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Art: Atelier Orsmaal